Messages

121

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: September 07, 2019, 01:15:44 PM »

I just tuned in to Clemson texas a&m, it's almost at the end of the 1st quarter and saw the stat a&m: 40some rushing yards, Clemson: -3 . Miami NC tonight 

Sarge: Depending on what they offer me I might cross-over to your side.

122

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: September 03, 2019, 07:34:46 AM »

The FPI, football power index, not the power rankings. It's an objective rating system based off yardage v yardage allowed and strength of schedule. Say if one team makes 4 90 yard drives, attempts 4 FG's and only scores 2, against a team that was stopped everytime on 3rd down except for 1 drive for a TD. The 2nd team would win 7-6, but the other team would likely have a better "FPI". Then, you factor in strength of schedule as well. What I DIDN'T know is that a team's tough schedule was factored in BEFORE they they even face their tough opponents. It's just an overall value. So whether sc loses to Charleston southern or Alabama it would be weighed the same on the FPI, an average of all of their opponents strengths. Since SC has the toughest schedule, their bad losses are the least impacting. Losing to UNC was like them losing to a team ranked 15th or so.

Then on the flipside, unc beating SC(ranked 30th let's say about) was more like beating someone ranked 45th, the average of UNC's weaker schedule. I just had never noticed it was done like that.

The other rankings take fpi in account, but use discretion regarding examples like the nc sc game. Since the system is like this the teams ranked in the preseason have an advantage. It gives them a pretext to ride teams like notre dame's nuts. Project im on came to an end plus this storm coming so I've had more time than usual to post lately Haha

123

Politics / Re: Current Politics & History Only Thread

« on: September 02, 2019, 05:59:22 PM »

Have any of y'all messed with crypto currencies? I don't plan on getting to into it myself, but I bought $96 in bitcoin Thursday. I had the idea of using bitcoin for my wagers in with sports, and then thought well maybe it can half-way replenish itself and I can make small bets every now and then. In 4 days, my value in bitcoin has went from 96 to $105.54 , it's a near 10% increase. I know there's ups and downs, but so far it's serving it's purpose. I can now get a "free bet" of $10, parlay it with a chance to win a couple hundred.

124

Politics / Re: Current Politics & History Only Thread

« on: September 02, 2019, 04:58:30 PM »

 

125

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: September 02, 2019, 03:31:38 PM »

A link appears in things I might like: "ESPN updates Football Power Index" FPI. I click it just to look, obviously I didn't expect NC to be on there; they weren't. But I did have a random thought that FPI is one category that might falsely have NC higher than they should. They out-rushed SC big time and had 6 full field drives averaging 80-85 yards(two were 95), yet only got 24 points total from them. Their defense was out-performing SC in most stat categories too.... anyway, I saw SC jumped into it. Them and Ohio State were 2 of the only teams that required a notation to explain why they were there:

24. South Carolina (0-1)

"How is South Carolina ranked but North Carolina isn't after the Gamecocks' disappointing loss in Charlotte as a two-touchdown favorite? Will Muschamp's team, facing the nation's toughest schedule, built a 20-9 advantage in the second half before the Tar Heels and true freshman quarterback Sam Howell responded with a 98-yard touchdown drive and a 95-yard scoring drive to prove the final tally. ."

Here's another team that required an explanation:

14. Ohio State (1-0)

"Not impressed with Ohio State? The Buckeyes score 28 points in the first eight minutes of action Saturday against FAU in Justin Fields' much-anticipated debut but somewhat stalled thereafter, failing to cover during a 45-21 victory. At times, Ohio State struggled defending FAU's tempo after intermission. Fields finished with five total touchdown as Ryan Day cruised in his first game. ... "

I know FPI factors in SoS, and I previously commented on SC's crazy schedule. What I didn't know is that SC and Ohio State's total SoS's would be applied to their first games, UNC and FAU respectively BEFORE they had faced any of their harder opponents. I just assumed it was objectively game-by-game, and it surprised me.

126

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: September 01, 2019, 03:01:03 PM »

This is the first time I haven't seen or received a ton of pictures claiming South Carolina is "The Real Carolina". They always rub that in NC's face after a win hahaha. Everyone I know calls NC "Carolina", and it's largely due to basketball. "The Carolina-Duke rivalry". It's always been an uphill battle claiming that name so they've always had to use beating us at football as rights to it. I personally could care less. I usually say their state not to be confused with southern cal.

127

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: September 01, 2019, 02:38:24 PM »

On paper SC has the most talent they've possessed under muschamp, and he claims that too. I'm not one to make these claims like everyone else is, but NC's coach was the guys' mentor. Muschamp was his DC at texas when they won the national championship. Maybe, to a degree Brown had a small idea of what to expect. Yeah the 2nd half was pretty stagnant of vandy georgia. I went to bed near the end of the 3rd quarter and saw the score the next day. Georgia didn't shine, and simply won because they're better. Vandy is consistently a part of low-scoring games. Michigan state used to be like that, northwestern has always been like that. That coupled with the 1st game I wouldn't worry too much yet, even though I see what you're saying. Last year it was blatant that clemson and alabama were the 2 best teams in the nation, but it was also obvious that georgia was #3 and #4 was more so up in the air... Kinda looks it should be a similar situation. By the time of the playoffs I think Oklahoma was the best choice even though they've been absurdly overrated in the past. Still waiting on Penn State to not drop a 1 pt game to ohio state @ columbus and get in there.

128

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: September 01, 2019, 12:34:41 PM »

Wow,  I looked up SC's schedule. Terrible timing to lose to UNC. They must have the toughest schedule in the nation. Alabama, clemson, AND Georgia. Does any other team have all of the presumed top 3? Plus other several sec matchups including texas a&m and Florida. Why didn't they throw in LSU and and Penn state while they were at it. Good luck to muschamp.  The media was really grilling him like he was in the hot seat about to be canned. UNC ain't THAT bad, they lost to Clemson in the ACC championship by 1 possession 3 years and 8 months ago, and had a 4 year streak of running the acc coastal. Just had a really, really bad coach with tons of kids that start in the NFL now. His last 2 seasons he didn't have a plethora of those players and it was glaringly obvious what the issue was.

129

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: August 31, 2019, 04:28:26 PM »

Yeah that call was insane. They were actually having luck doing EXACTLY that in the 1st quarter and got 5-7 yards off a quick pass to a back each time.  Crazy, sc fans left pretty pissed off in a sold out charlotte stadium. Everyone was cheering Mack is back. A lot of coaching mistakes as well, but such a breath of fresh air to see the old mistakes not be there anymore. I just went from undoubtedly selling my great nc clemson tickets to 50/50. I'll see how miami and app state go first. My wife even let her baby shower be scheduled on the game day, lol.

NC state destroyed a solid ECU team too. I hope this continues, the ACC needs it.

HAH! Tennessee lost to a sun belt team. Georgia State. And middle tennessee scored the first TD on Michigan. If Michigan loses to them that might even surpass the classic one where app state upset them in their home opener. It would be good for the big 10 if ohio state, michigan, and nebraska all fail miserably while the teams that quietly carry their conference do well (penn state, iowa, wisconsin).

AN UNDEFEATED NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS. How many times has anyone been able to say that in a long time?

NC had lost 21 of their last 24 games against fbs opponents, and the first season opening win against a power 5 opponent in 20 years. And yeah, I was disappointed with the fsu boise game too. All of my gator fan friends were salivating over that one.

130

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: August 31, 2019, 04:11:29 PM »

NC made a lot of mistakes but that was a far more conservatively coached team. Got stuffed in the red zone 3 times, settled for a FG all 3x. I know it ain't a big deal for y'all to beat an average or a tad above average SEC team, but larry fedora lost to them all 3 times with way more talent.  In 1 game the difference was obvious. In the first half, I didn't know this before the game, but NC was down 2 starting linebackers and it showed. 1 serving a first half suspension from the previous year, another injured. UNC's best QB from last year was playing middle linebacker and single-handed gave SC a TD. NC got lucky there at the end but exceeded my expectations.

131

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: August 31, 2019, 12:24:42 PM »

I had a similar experience with announcers while watching a similar match-up yesterday. Michigan State v. Tulsa. Tulsa was giving them a hard time in the 1st quarter all the while the announcers are just talking up the big 10 so much. Michigan State ended up beating them 28-7, but during that 1st Q when it was tied they had to make up excuses for why it was close. "The big 10 is the best conference in college football no doubt." "This is a really good game, not many people know that the AAC has surpassed the PAC12 and the ACC, so this could get interesting"

...Ya. Suuuuuuuuure. I think the AAC has improved and are good for what they are, but that was a stretch there.

About to tune into NC v. SC on espn @ 3:30. UNC has a senior defense, good RB's, a true freshman QB, and a new coach. I'm still thinking low scoring game and SC wins, but was surprised with kirk h. and others picking NC on sportscenter today(3 out of 5 picked SC). Hopefully i'll be surprised and see some decent football because the last 2 seasons were an all-time low. No expectations though.

Oh.. NC State looked pretty good against ECU today. They were already on the fringe of being ranked, I think they'll scrape the bottom 25 now. And a big lol @ FAU scoring that much on Ohio State. They might even get a 4th TD.

From the scoreboard FSU Boise state has been close all game, and Iowa st and Nebraska both had trouble with non-ranked small schools.

132

Politics / Re: Current Politics & History Only Thread

« on: August 31, 2019, 06:33:42 AM »

This isn't entirely appropriate for the politics thread, but weather media is just as wonky as political media these days.

Floridians get duped every single time into thinking that it's going to hit them, the media throws hurricanes in their face, and Floridians all think their state is the place for all things hurricane-related. Floridian=an expert on hurricanes. Florida IS known for hurricanes, they get hit plenty. Here are the stats for most affected:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/rank.htm (there's my historical data, so now it can belong in this thread )

Florida is seen a lot, but they also have a lot of coastline. Y'all probably remember I grew up in the most hurricane-prone place, which is why I immediately recognized this picture(8am Hurricane Dorian update on the weather channel this morning):



That is a picture of tourists leaving hatteras for hurricane dorian and they are saying it's Floridians looking for gas. I have friends all on the south florida to central florida coast. There's no one at the pumps and gas is readily available.

They never have a good idea where storms are going, which is why you only go off history, warm water(gulf stream), and high pressures. Massive lows like a hurricane do not go near highs.... That's it.

133

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: August 30, 2019, 10:33:47 AM »

The ACC network JUST launched a week ago. Pretty sure it was the only major conference without it's own channel. They announced it in 2017 that it would be a thing in the 19-20 season. On the downside, ACC games aren't aired for free by typing theacc.com/live anymore. Right now I'm in the va beach area and cox cable didn't have the acc network. I watched a little bit on my laptop on low quality and GA Tech was getting stuffed bad in the red zone, rarely completed a pass, and still has most of their success running it. Oh and they still go for it on 4th down every damn time. Thank goodness NC got rid of Larry Fedora. He had a fetish for that too.

134

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: August 30, 2019, 07:12:30 AM »

Week 1's "biggest games":

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27488358/college-football-picks-wins-week-1-biggest-games

I still think North Carolina v. South Carolina is going to be a lot lower scoring than what's predicted. UNC's defense is all upperclassman and they have a true freshman QB. South Carolina is going to win 24-14 or something similar. Off of memory I've bet the under for 1st half and the whole game and won every time during their past 3 match-ups. I recall one final score being 17-10 3 years ago.

Not listed is Duke @ Alabama. I think Duke is going to surprise them and put up 14 or so more than likely in the 2nd half, but I also see duke's secondaries being outmatched big time. Probably going to be some deep TD passes early on and bama running up the score. Might be a good game to take the over in the 1st half, wait for the o/u for the 2nd half to go up at half-time, then take the under for the 2nd.

I wonder if boise state will beat FSU. Everyone is unanimously against that but I wouldn't be so sure. An ok wager would be for Boise to cover the spread.

In the mormon showdown it being a rivalry game, either taking the under or byu covering the spread against Utah.

Auburn > Oregon
Oklahoma > Houston (I might take the over on this one)

135

/dev/random / Re: The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

« on: August 30, 2019, 04:44:12 AM »

Well I opened my sportsbook, and surprisingly I left 33$ in it. I turned it into 77 last night, starting from scratch again...