The Official 2019-2020 Season Football Thread

[haunted]

A link appears in things I might like: "ESPN updates Football Power Index" FPI. I click it just to look, obviously I didn't expect NC to be on there; they weren't. But I did have a random thought that FPI is one category that might falsely have NC higher than they should. They out-rushed SC big time and had 6 full field drives averaging 80-85 yards(two were 95), yet only got 24 points total from them. Their defense was out-performing SC in most stat categories too.... anyway, I saw SC jumped into it. Them and Ohio State were 2 of the only teams that required a notation to explain why they were there:

24. South Carolina (0-1)

"How is South Carolina ranked but North Carolina isn't after the Gamecocks' disappointing loss in Charlotte as a two-touchdown favorite? Will Muschamp's team, facing the nation's toughest schedule, built a 20-9 advantage in the second half before the Tar Heels and true freshman quarterback Sam Howell responded with a 98-yard touchdown drive and a 95-yard scoring drive to prove the final tally. ."

Here's another team that required an explanation:

14. Ohio State (1-0)

"Not impressed with Ohio State? The Buckeyes score 28 points in the first eight minutes of action Saturday against FAU in Justin Fields' much-anticipated debut but somewhat stalled thereafter, failing to cover during a 45-21 victory. At times, Ohio State struggled defending FAU's tempo after intermission. Fields finished with five total touchdown as Ryan Day cruised in his first game. ... "

I know FPI factors in SoS, and I previously commented on SC's crazy schedule. What I didn't know is that SC and Ohio State's total SoS's would be applied to their first games, UNC and FAU respectively BEFORE they had faced any of their harder opponents. I just assumed it was objectively game-by-game, and it surprised me.

[Sgt. Dick]

You got a troll hack 
Here is what I see on ESPN - https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27514737/college-football-power-rankings

SC is not listed, but they love Ohio St. 

[|iR|Focalor]

Yeah, from what I see, Oregon @ #22 is the only 0-1 team on that list. Maybe it changed since yesterday. Unlike the position of that damn hurricane. WTF, man!?! It's like it's STUCK to the Bahamas with hurricane glue.

[haunted]

The FPI, football power index, not the power rankings. It's an objective rating system based off yardage v yardage allowed and strength of schedule. Say if one team makes 4 90 yard drives, attempts 4 FG's and only scores 2, against a team that was stopped everytime on 3rd down except for 1 drive for a TD. The 2nd team would win 7-6, but the other team would likely have a better "FPI". Then, you factor in strength of schedule as well. What I DIDN'T know is that a team's tough schedule was factored in BEFORE they they even face their tough opponents. It's just an overall value. So whether sc loses to Charleston southern or Alabama it would be weighed the same on the FPI, an average of all of their opponents strengths. Since SC has the toughest schedule, their bad losses are the least impacting. Losing to UNC was like them losing to a team ranked 15th or so.

Then on the flipside, unc beating SC(ranked 30th let's say about) was more like beating someone ranked 45th, the average of UNC's weaker schedule. I just had never noticed it was done like that.

The other rankings take fpi in account, but use discretion regarding examples like the nc sc game. Since the system is like this the teams ranked in the preseason have an advantage. It gives them a pretext to ride teams like notre dame's nuts. Project im on came to an end plus this storm coming so I've had more time than usual to post lately Haha

[Sgt. Dick]

Hurricane is even with me right now, luckily the bad stuff is just off the coast.

Bahamas will have people who will never be found 

[|iR|Focalor]

Bahamas will have people who will never be found 

That's the most accurate usage of that emoji I've ever seen.

[haunted]

I just tuned in to Clemson texas a&m, it's almost at the end of the 1st quarter and saw the stat a&m: 40some rushing yards, Clemson: -3 . Miami NC tonight 

Sarge: Depending on what they offer me I might cross-over to your side.

[|iR|Focalor]

For some reason, I thought FSU and ULM might be worth watching. And god dammit if ULM didn't just about beat them. Would've been funny to see FSU go 0-2 to Boise State and Louisiana Monroe.

How the fuck do you miss a 1pt field goal in overtime!?! FSU wins... only because the other team DIDN'T WANT TO.

[haunted]

I watched half of it on and off. Seems like they got some conditioning and discipline issues. Army almost had michigan(Army missed a FG ftw), and colorado beat Nebraska. So far NC is doing decent, starting center injured for a few games probably, best wide receiver for NC out for the game at least, THANKS MIAMI. UNC's defense has been playing well.

Oh, and Penn State down 10-7 to buffalo at half-time. Damn it, I parlayed them covering a massive first half spread with like everything, screwed all my bets I got right

[haunted]

Yewwwww! Two tight games and NC came through. A lot of mistakes, again, but dag on. Miami played a bit better than in their opener with Florida. Next is app state, wake forest, then clemson. The kids have gotta be feeling good coming out on top with their 3rd and 4th toughest opponents likely for the regular season. Clemson and nc state will be really tough.

NC just went from projected dead last in the acc coastal to possibly the favorite to win it. 

Still a lot of games left though.

[|iR|Focalor]

UNC showed marked improvement from last week... in every category except COACHING. Using that 1st timeout to save clock for a long field goal (that they predictably missed of course, another symptom of poor coaching) was dumb as hell, and almost came back to bite them in the ass. UNC got lucky. With coaching decisions like that happening 2 weeks in a row, you can probably come to expect it EVERY week. Surely I can't be the only one noticing how this guy seems to be flying by the seat of his pants, making impulsive calls without really thinking about strategy and risk/statistical % of success.

That FG was just plain dumb. UNC's kicker just isn't reliable enough to try from that distance. The likelihood of missing was quite high. If you miss, your opponent gets the ball AT the spot of the attempted FG kick. Given that information, you have almost nothing to lose going for it on 4th down. And as the announcer said, if you've already decided you AREN'T going to go for it on 4th down, why not let the clock run off and take the 5yd penalty before punting it away and SAVE all 3 timeouts for the end of the game when you might need ALL of them.

This poor decision making hasn't really effected UNC yet. But it's going to at some point. Versus Miami, they looked evenly matched. So if they would've lost, it wouldn't have been so devastating. But decisions like that are eventually going to cost them games against people they otherwise SHOULD beat.

[haunted]

Yes, that was the biggest blunder by far. And really the mistakes should have mattered, them being able to win the 4th quarter(often with last second heroics) has saved them opposed to blowing a 4th quarter lead something like 7 games last year. I thought Miami had it. App state is pretty good and wake is alright. I would've expected NC to lose those games previously so those mistakes could finally catch up to them in the next 2 weeks.

NC's toughest games are more than likely in this order:

1. Clemson
2. NC State
3. SC
4. Miami
5. App/UVA

App and virginia are the best they've been in years maybe.

Anyway, the AP won't give NC any credit, they'll write off the wins as fluke/gimmicky. Which is fine, but if Nebraska or 20 other teams beat SC and Miami in the same fashion you KNOW they'd put them at 18th-23rd, hahaha. NC is used to that though. I'm just happy to be seeing above average football for a change.

I saw one top 25 earlier that ranked Army for losing to Michigan in OT. Maybe it was bleacher report. "CAN YOU SAY QUALITY LOSS??" was the caption. Army played well and smart with good conditioning, if only they could pass it. Oh and fuck michigan

[haunted]

Did you write this foc?

Coaching: C+

This is as good a time as any to remind you, the reader, that this grade reflects in-game coaching only. That’s pertinent right now because it’s obvious that UNC’s prep this week was phenomenal: The team had just one five-yard penalty, the offense looked a lot more comfortable with Phil Longo’s scheme this week, and the resilience they showed in coming back on the final offensive drive (and standing tall after being initially gashed on Miami’s last attempt to tie) is a testament to the culture change that Mack Brown and staff have already instilled in the program, and that’s no small feat.

But boy howdy, do he and his staff need to get on the same page on gameday. After a first quarter where they allowed Sam Howell to sling it and get to an early lead, the offensive gameplan started to resemble what we saw in the first half last week, an uber-conservative one more focused on avoiding big mistakes than actually scoring. The offense failed to find any rhythm with a run-first approach against a run-stopping front 7, and stalled to the point of scoring just a field goal in the time between the first quarter and a minute left in the game. This staff absolutely cannot take its foot off the gas pedal in games like this, where they are the justified underdog, even with a substantial lead like 17-3. Howell has more than proven himself worthy of trust to not make debilitating mistakes, and it’s time that the offensive playcalling reflected that for 60 minutes. Additionally, the Heels’ clock and timeout management in the second half was absolutely woeful. They burned a timeout after trouble changing the play at the line, then another on 4th down that just led to a punt (just take the delay of game if you’re punting), leaving the Heels just one timeout for when it mattered. Fortunately, they were given enough time for that not to be an issue, but that won’t always be the case. And finally, numerous sources have reported that UNC sent the punt team out on 4th and 17 on the final drive, with just one timeout and less than 3 minutes remaining, before Mack Brown was convinced by Phil Longo that the offense would convert. The decision making process has to be clearer than this, and Brown needs to better study game situations, because punting in that scenario with one timeout with an offense you haven’t held to a 3-and-out since the first quarter is essentially surrender. This was all papered over by a great final drive, but this staff has work to do so that future gamedays don’t get this... stressful. But now that that’s over, let’s just enjoy this win. Go Heels.

Heels fans like me are feeling optimistic about it mostly from the positives we see in contrast to the atrocious coaching in the past few years. Practices are probably going really well. Hopefully Mack gets with it, too much time in the commentating booth.

--

LSU moves to #4 in the AP making that 3 SEC teams in the top 4. Not sure about LSU yet, but they have a passing game now which is new. They might be better than usual? At least more well-rounded. Virginia cracks the top 25 at 25th being the only other ACC team in there aside from clemson. NC is at 30th by votes.

[|iR|Focalor]

Did you write this foc?

No, but I did say...

Surely I can't be the only one noticing how this guy seems to be flying by the seat of his pants,...

I didn't see any NFL preseason games, mostly because these days you can't tell jack shit from preseason games anyway, nobody except the guys fighting for starting positions try all that hard during preseason anymore.

Either the Vikings are pretty good, or the Falcons are really bad. Likely BOTH are true. My god, they looked fucking HELPLESS. Halfway into the 2nd quarter, I said "Fuck it, it's over already.", flipped the Xbox on and started playing some GTA Online instead.

Cowboys might finally be some serious competition for someone this year.

...is what I thought until I saw New England play in the Sunday Night game. I'm calling it now, unless something major happens like Tom Brady breaks his arm or half the team dies from untreated foot fungus, the Patriots are gonna win the Superbowl again this year.

[haunted]

I only saw the highlights, but yeah they looked pretty unstoppable lol. I don't know if they were making them pay for man to man coverage the whole time(saw it a few times in the highlights) but Brady was nailing tight ends after short routes again and again. They are already so good at receiving dogs they even need antonio brown?